寻找避免“中等收入陷阱”的方法：以中国和秘鲁为例 Finding a Way to Avoid the Middle-Income Trap: The Cases of China and Peru by 张宇燕 & 罗萨里奥·圣加德亚主编

Author:张宇燕 & 罗萨里奥·圣加德亚主编
Language: eng
Format: mobi
Publisher: 中国社会科学出版社
Published: 2021-10-14T16:00:00+00:00

Because developing countries have limited ability to attract direct investment, most of them can only rely on external liabilities to support the trade deficit caused by excessive domestic demand, namely, cover the deficit with financial account. In this case, long-term high debt is not feasible, which is likely to trigger external financial crises, thereby prompting developing countries to fall into the “middle-income trap”.

One of the Approaches for Developing Countries to Escape from Middle-Income Trap: Investment

If the developing country desires to escape from middle-income trap, the supply-demand structure conflict should be solved, and the industrial structure upgrading to promote economic growth is an efficient way to solve the conflict. According to Eva Paus’ research on Latin American countries’ falling into the middle-income trap , the main reason is the failure to implement industrial structure regulation (Paus, 2014). Gualerzi (2012) studied the relationship between consumption and growth, and he believed that consumption was endogenous to the creation of new market. Since the creation of the market ultimately depends on the investment and innovative input, solving the supply-demand structure conflict ultimately relies on investment and innovation. However, the infrastructure investment is an important constituent part of the investment. Aschauer (1989) discovered that the decline of public investment would reduce the economic growth rate simultaneously. He separated the infrastructure investment from the total investment and discovered that the infrastructure investment was an important source for the promotion of economic growth.

Influencing Mechanism and Empirical Analysis of Infrastructure Investment to Economic Growth

Infrastructure is not only an important foundation of social and economic development, but also a continuous impetus to economic development.[2] On the one hand, infrastructure investment drives economic growth through direct investment effect whose mechanism can be reflected as follows: (1) infrastructure investment directly increases the total output; (2) the investment multiplier effect drives the growth of other demands in the process of infrastructure investment, so as to further promote the economic growth. On the other hand, the investment to improve infrastructure will indirectly promote economic growth through various overflow approaches (Moreno et al, 2000). The improved infrastructure indirectly promotes economic growth through increasing production supply, promoting consumption demand and enhancing social external earning. In terms of production supply, the infrastructure improvement is beneficial for promoting factor mobility, lowering the transportation and production cost of the manufacturing industry, reducing inventory, improving the service efficiency and capacity utilization factor of production means, so as to promote economic growth(Li et al, 2013, Mamatzakis’,2008, Zhang et al, 2018, Liu, 2018). In terms of consumer demand, the improvement of infrastructure, such as the public infrastructure, will increase the residents’ demands for consumption tools, so as to promote economic growth (Guo et al, 2019). In terms of social external income, the improvement of infrastructure will reduce the income disparity between different regions, promote regional safety and guarantee the stability of economic growth (Lopes, 2003). The specific influencing mechanism is shown in Figure 9.1.

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